Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 9/28-30 and Global News/Ipsos 9/27-30

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 9/28-30 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 21%)
Global News/Ipsos' 9/27-30 national poll (numbers from Global News article only; current weight among national polls: 20%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Update 10/1: Mainstreet's Beauport--Limoilou poll was also considered, but did not result in an adjustment.

The Conservative lead expands slightly in the Nanos tracker, with the biggest movement being a Green fall and an NDP increase. The dropped sample was from 9/27, which was the night before the climate strike, and coincided with Frank Graves tweeting about a steep Green rise in QC. So it seems quite possible that the Green rise picked up by Nanos and Graves was simply a short-lived Greta effect.

The Ipsos poll is pretty much what you'd expect from Ipsos. Its most noteworthy elements are a poor national Green number, a relatively good Tory number in QC, and a very competitive Liberal one in BC.

Overall, the model sees these new numbers as marginal good news for the Tories in terms of seats - marginal enough that it doesn't fully erase Liberal gains in yesterday's afternoon update. In terms of vote share, however, the Tories do jump back to what I think of as their neutral level of 36% (where they were all of August), at the expense of the Greens.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 29)
LIB - 153.6 (33.6%)
CON - 144.1 (36.0%)
NDP - 18.8 (12.6%)
BQ - 17.5 (4.8%)
GRN - 3.0 (9.7%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, CONs regain Avalon from LIBs.
- In QC, CONs retake Beauce from the PPC.
- In QC, CONs retake Jonquière from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs regain Richmond Hill from LIBs.
- In BC, LIBs get Burnaby North--Seymour back from CONs.

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