Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/6-8

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/6-8 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 35%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: The increased recency of this poll reduces the weight of yesterday's Forum poll from 26% to 22%.

Today's Mainstreet poll shows the Liberals and Tories both down, with the NDP being the main beneficiaries. There is again no corroboration of Forum's lead for the Tories, so the Conservatives are down slightly more than the Liberals in the projection.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 7.5)
CON - 144.4 (35.4%)
LIB - 142.7 (32.6%)
BQ - 24.9 (5.6%)
NDP - 22.1 (13.9%)
GRN - 2.9 (9.2%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, LIBs get Markham--Stouffville and St. Catharines back from CONs.
- In ON, the NDP gets Essex back from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP gets North Island--Powell River back from CONs.

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