Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/7-9

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/7-9 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 38%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Oct. 12: Fixed error in seats changing hands.

Today's Mainstreet tracker behaved quite differently from the Nanos one: the Liberals drop, the Bloc rises, and the Tories stay flat. The polls do agree about continued NDP momentum.

Mainstreet has also publicly released its regional breakdown. As was the case in earlier Mainstreet polling, the breakdown is friendly to the Liberals in ON and to the Tories in BC. The Greens also do relatively well in BC, and come a surprising second in Atlantic Canada (sample of 162).

As you might expect, the projection essentially reverts to what it was before the Nanos poll (though with the Liberals marginally ahead), except for a further increase by the Bloc. For the first time, both major parties are below 140. I don't have the Greens ahead in any Atlantic seat, but the expected value of their number of seats there is above 0.5 for the first time.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 8)
LIB - 139.4 (32.1%)
CON - 138.3 (34.5%)
BQ - 29.9 (6.3%)
NDP - 26.1 (15.2%)
GRN - 3.3 (8.7%)

IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the NDP retakes Outremont from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik--Eeyou, Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne, Québec, Laurier--Sainte-Marie, Sherbrooke and La Prairie from LIBs.
- In BC, CONs regain Steveston--Richmond East from LIBs.
- In BC, Wilson-Raybould retakes Vancouver Granville from LIBs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Courtenay--Alberni back from CONs.