Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, October 11, 2019

Projection Update: DART 10/9

The following poll has been added to the model:
DART's 10/9 national poll (current weight among national polls: 10 12%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: This post will be revised if the full regional breakdown becomes available before the next projection update. Update Oct. 12: The full regional breakdown from DART is now available (link above updated). The Sun article had misreported the numbers in ON: it is the Liberals that have a 1-point lead there, with the NDP at 25% rather than 18%.

This DART poll has the NDP and Bloc higher than other recent polls. However, because this has typically been the case for DART, the projection is essentially unaffected by these results.

This is another poor poll for the Liberals in BC this week, reversing some good news for them here last week. On the other hand, the Tory lead Conservative Party, both nationally and in ON, has actually shrunk fallen by more than the Liberals relative to the last DART poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of "blackface."

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 9)
CON - 139.2 139.6 (33.9 34.1%)
LIB - 134.3 134.0 (31.5 31.6%)
BQ - 31.7 32.0 (6.5%)
NDP - 28.3 (15.7 15.8%)
GRN - 3.2 3.0 (9.1 8.8%)
PPC - 0.6
IND - 0.6
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ gains Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ gains Beauport--Limoilou from CONs.
- In ON, the NDP gains Toronto Danforth and Davenport from LIBs.
- In SK, the NDP gets Saskatoon West back from CONs.
- In BC, CONs regain Courtenay--Alberni from the NDP.

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