Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Mapped Projection Update: Innovative 10/3-7, Mainstreet 10/5-7

The following polls have been added to the model:
Innovative's 10/3-7 national poll (current weight among national polls: 17%)
Mainstreet's 10/5-7 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 35%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Oct. 8: Map and potential seating plan added.

IRG's newest poll (with the Ad-testing methodology that seems less Liberal friendly than IRG's methodology for other polls) shows little movement nationally. There are two interesting tidbits in this poll. First, the Liberals are shown with a lead in BC that is more than marginal; this is more evidence of the Tories' recent struggles there. Second, the Bloc is up only marginally in QC (where the poll oversampled), so IRG is in the camp of "TVA debate had little impact on the Bloc" along with Abacus and Nanos (and unlike Ipsos and Mainstreet).

Mainstreet's tracker barely moved from yesterday.

Both these polls had little impact on the aggregate projection.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 6)
LIB - 154.3 (34.1%)
CON - 138.5 (35.2%)
BQ - 21.7 (5.6%)
NDP - 19.9 (13.3%)
GRN - 2.6 (8.7%)
PPC - 0.6
IND - 0.4
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The only seat lead changes are in BC. Note that 6 of the 7 Vancouver Island ridings (all except Elizabeth May's) are within 6%...

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In BC, LIBs get Steveston--Richmond East back from CONs.
- In BC, GRNs regain Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke from the NDP.

Here are a map of the projection and a potential (pre-Speaker election) House of Commons sitting chart:

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