Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/3-5 and Riding Polls

The following polls have been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/3-5 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 49%)
Mainstreet's Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie and Orléans polls
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Although iPolitics did not make public Mainstreet numbers today, Groupe Capitale Médias did! The article states that the field dates were October 2-6, but the sample size is consistent with Mainstreet's usual three-day samples, and the publication time of the article means that the field dates were likely October 3-5. (In any case, the midpoint date is October 4.)

This poll shows that, compared to two days ago, both the Tories and Liberals are down, with the NDP, Greens and BQ each up slightly. The implied BQ support in QC is 28-32.3% (given that "7%" national support means 6.5-7.5%). This is, of course, very high, and leads to a BQ jump in the projection. Moreover, the Liberals are down in the projection because these numbers fail to corroborate the Liberal opening up a lead, as observed by Nanos.

Note that I did not use the QC numbers from the article: the sample size suggests that they were based on 4 days of polling (probably actually October 2-5), thus not lining up with national numbers. Moreover, estimating national numbers for this period is tricky as the October 2-4 results weren't made public.

Finally, Mainstreet published two riding polls with results very close to model projections, including the NDP's Alexandre Boulerice with a moderate lead in Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie. No adjustments were made.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 4)
LIB - 151.2 (33.7%)
CON - 137.6 (35.1%)
BQ - 23.5 (5.6%)
NDP - 21.7 (13.7%)
GRN - 2.9 (8.6%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The BQ gains the lead in 9 seats, including several that had been Liberal since the first projection.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ retakes Drummond and Jonquière from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Saint-Jean, Hochelaga, Abitibi--Témiscamingue, Montarville, Thérèse-de-Blainville, Longueuil--Saint-Hubert and Rivière-des-Mille-Îles from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Oakville North--Burlington and Richmond Hill from LIBs.
- In BC, Wilson-Raybould retakes Vancouver Granville from LIBs.
- In BC, CONs regain Steveston--Richmond East from LIBs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Courtenay--Alberni and Port Moody--Coquitlam back from CONs.

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