Projection Update: Nanos 10/2-4

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/2-4 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 30%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Nanos shows the Conservatives falling further, with the Liberals holding their large gain from yesterday. This is somewhat surprising as the dropped October 1 sample seemed likely to be a strong one for the Liberals, so one would have guessed that the Liberals would drop today rather than the Tories. The 3.66% Liberal lead is the largest of the campaign in Nanos tracking, and the Tory projection falls below 140 seats for the first time since my projections for this election started over two months ago.

As if this weren't enough good news for the Liberals, the Bloc failed to make further gains, so it is possible that Blanchet's strong debate performance merely consolidated his party's gains - though of course we will need more data before saying that this is indeed the case.

The NDP also made notable gains, while the Greens kept dropping.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 3)
LIB - 155.3 (34.3%)
CON - 139.1 (35.6%)
NDP - 20.4 (13.6%)
BQ - 19.6 (5.3%)
GRN - 2.6 (8.1%)

IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ takes Drummond from CONs.
- In ON, LIBs get Kitchener South--Hespeler and Burlington back from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Courtenay--Alberni back from CONs.