Projection Update: Nanos 10/5-7, Innovative 9/17-24

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/5-7 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 26%)
Innovative's 9/17-24 national poll (current weight among national polls: 3%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Oct. 8: Corrected typo in CON popular vote. (Numbers in the blog's left and right columns were correct.)

The Nanos tracker has the Tories up and the NDP down. If one were to "guesstimate" the daily Nanos numbers, one would conclude that the dropped sample, 10/4, was a poor Tory and good NDP day, so these changes are not surprising. Because the model doesn't use these guesstimates, the projection does move slightly toward the Tories and away from the NDP.

The IRG poll (Ad-Testing Wave 2; the other data was released much earlier and included in the projection then) has little impact due to its age.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 6)
LIB - 154.9 (34.3%)
CON - 139.1 (35.1 35.5%)
BQ - 20.8 (5.5%)
NDP - 19.8 (13.1%)
GRN - 2.3 (8.4%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, CONs regain Vaughan--Woodbridge from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Essex from the NDP.
- In BC, CONs regain Port Moody--Coquitlam and Courtenay--Alberni from the NDP.
- In BC, CONs regain Steveston--Richmond East from LIBs.
- In BC, LIBs take Vancouver Granville from Wilson-Raybould.