Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/28-30

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/28-30 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 35%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Out of nowhere, Mainstreet now shows the Tories with their largest lead in its polling in months! This came as a surprise to me - and I'm guessing to many of you. It also came as a surprise to the model, which shifted substantially, with the Liberal seat lead - and its small post-blackface recovery - essentially gone in one fell swoop.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 29)
LIB - 148.9 (33.1%)
CON - 148.5 (36.5%)
NDP - 19.3 (12.9%)
BQ - 17.5 (4.8%)
GRN - 2.8 (9.5%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, CONs retake Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs regain Kitchener South--Hespeler and Vaughan--Woodbridge from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP gets Windsor West back from LIBs.
- In BC, CONs regain Burnaby North--Seymour from LIBs.
- In BC, CONs regain Courtenay--Alberni from the NDP.
- In BC, the NDP gets Victoria back from LIBs.

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