Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Projection Update: Forum 10/16

The following poll has been added to the model:
Forum's 10/16 national poll (current weight among national polls: 31%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Forum poll is the first one of the campaign with the Tories below 30% both nationally and in a public ON breakdown. They are also well behind the leading Liberals in the Atlantic and the 3rd place NDP in QC. It's just one poll, but the trend has been extremely negative for the Conservatives - consistently losing 1 point every 4 days since the start of October - and this merely shows that trend continuing.

The NDP is now ahead of the Liberals in the polling average in both BC and AB, in addition to MB/SK. The Liberals, on the other hand, are back up to 70 seats in the ON projection.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 16)
LIB - 134.0 (31.4%)
CON - 124.6 (32.3%)
NDP - 41.1 (19.6%)
BQ - 35.7 (6.9%)
GRN - 1.5 (6.6%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation back from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get King--Vaughan, Whitby and Newmarket--Aurora back from CONs.
- In ON, LIBs get Davenport back from the NDP.
- In AB, the NDP retakes Edmonton Griesbach from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP takes Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge from CONs.

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