Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/13-15

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/13-15 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 43%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Mainstreet poll shows a further NDP increase, with a Green drop and a smaller Tory decrease. The NDP is now approaching the 40-seat mark in the projection, and, in terms of the popular vote, in close range of the second-place Liberals in both AB and, more importantly, BC (as remarked earlier, the NDP is already ahead of the Liberals in MB/SK).

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 14)
CON - 130.5 (32.6%)
LIB - 129.4 (31.0%)
NDP - 38.3 (18.4%)
BQ - 36.9 (7.1%)
GRN - 1.9 (7.7%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ retakes Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix from CONs.
- In QC, the NDP retakes Outremont from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP retakes Toronto--Danforth from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Cambridge back from CONs.
- In SK, the NDP gets Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River back from CONs.
- In AB, the NDP regains Edmonton Griesbach from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP retakes Nanaimo--Ladysmith from GRNs.

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