Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Projection Update: Angus Reid 10/12-15

The following poll has been added to the model:
Angus Reid's 10/12-15 national poll (current weight among national polls: 39%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: I have not updated the provincial seat distribution table on the left due to lack of time.

Today's Angus Reid poll is quite similar to last week's, so the projection shifts little. The Tories are very low in AB and the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, but that's probably just due to the small sample sizes (fewer than 150) in those areas. The Bloc widens its still insignificant lead in QC, while the Liberals erase the Angus Reid Tory lead in ON. The Conservatives have fallen back in BC, within range of both the NDP and Liberals, while the Greens' single-digit result in BC has them fall to 2.0 seats in the projection.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 13.5)
CON - 131.2 (32.9%)
LIB - 129.6 (30.9%)
BQ - 37.2 (7.0%)
NDP - 36.9 (17.8%)
GRN - 2.0 (8.2%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection: No time to update - sorry!
- In PE, CONs regain Egmont and Charlottetown from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Toronto--Danforth back from the NDP.
- In AB, the NDP gains Edmonton Griesbach from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP takes Nanaimo--Ladysmith from GRNs.

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