Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, October 4, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 10/1-3, Mainstreet's 9/26 Berthier--Maskinongé Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/1-3 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 24%)
Mainstreet's 9/29 Berthier--Maskinongé poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Nanos poll shows a large move towards the Liberals. My guesstimate of the single-day Nanos numbers (not used directly in the projection) suggests that this is due to a very Tory-friendly 9/30 sample being dropped, and that this shift may reverse tomorrow when a very Liberal-friendly 10/1 sample is dropped. However, for now, this shift moves the projection significantly.

Mainstreet has a very encouraging riding poll for the NDP, showing Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the lead in Berthier--Maskinongé. However, the Bloc candidate is still very much in the mix. Adjusting the projection halfway towards the poll results in a rough tie.

Finally, this projection also incorporates the sub-regional breakdowns from yesterday's Campaign Research poll. That led to updates to adjustments for ON (those for QC and MB/SK are unchanged).

After being momentarily helped by "blackface" and Greta, the Greens are now at their lowest in months, dropping below their mid-September level. If this continues, they may fail to beat their 6.78% result from 2008.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 2)
LIB - 152.0 (33.9%)
CON - 143.5 (36.1%)
NDP - 19.5 (13.2%)
BQ - 19.4 (5.2%)
GRN - 2.7 (8.4%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, LIBs get Kanata--Carleton back from CONs.
- In BC, LIBs get Burnaby North--Seymour back from CONs.

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