Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, October 7, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/4-6, Ipsos 10/4-7

The following polls have been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/4-6 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 31%)
Global News Ipsos' 10/4-7 national poll (results from Global News article only; current weight among national polls: 27%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Mainstreet tracker has the NDP making gains, while the Bloc pulls back a bit, but remains at a high level.

Ipsos shows a strong surge for the Bloc in QC, to 30%. This is partly counteracted by a Liberal increase as well in La Belle Province. Nationally, Ipsos shows a 1-point Liberal lead, which is noteworthy given its Conservative lean.

As usual when Mainstreet isn't showing a Liberal lead, updating it causes the Tories to go up slightly in the projection. The Ipsos poll, however, more than counteracts that*. Therefore, overall, the Liberal seat lead expands slightly.

*The Ipsos poll also counteracts the correction of a long-standing spreadsheet error that has been causing the Tory lead to be understated by ~0.1%, and the Liberal seat lead overstated by ~1 since Sept. 12...

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 5.5)
LIB - 155.7 (34.3%)
CON - 136.9 (35.1%)
NDP - 21.2 (13.6%)
BQ - 20.8 (5.5%)
GRN - 2.3 (8.3%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, LIBs get Vaughan--Woodbridge back from CONs.
- In BC, LIBs get Steveston--Richmond East back from CONs.

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