Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, October 20, 2019

Projection Update: Léger 10/17-18 and Nanos 10/17-19

The following polls have been added to the model:
Léger's 10/17-18 national poll (current weight among national polls: 14%)
Nanos' 10/17-19 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 30%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Oct. 20: Added the Nanos regional breakdown for yesterday (with imputed values for MB/SK and AB) that were publicly released. (Earlier version of this post had just the QC and BC numbers discussed on CTV.)

Even though its headline is a national tie, the last Léger poll is rather bad news for the Liberals:
- Reduced lead in ON
- Bloc still increasing in QC (contrary to what most other polls show)
- Lost lead to Tories in BC
Even worse, this Léger poll's QC breakdown shows a reversal from the Léger megapoll of QC in that the Liberal vote seems to be increasingly concentrated in Montreal again. It's possible that the Liberals dropped more in the Montreal area to the NDP last week, but is getting some of those voters back. Or this could be noise. In any case, the QC adjustments have been revised. (I still need to work on the ON ones, though I will probably wait for the final Campaign Research poll for that.)

The Nanos poll is also bad news for the Liberals, who relinquish their national lead from yesterday. Nanos should have another release tonight with today's data though, so stay tuned.

All this bad news for the Liberals sends the projection back to a virtual tie.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 18)
LIB - 134.6 134.9 (32.1%)
CON - 133.1 132.8 (33.5%)
BQ - 34.0 (6.9%)
NDP - 33.4 (17.5%)
GRN - 1.7 (6.8%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ takes Richmond--Arthabaska, Trois-Rivières, Beauport--Limoilou and Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix from CONs.
- In QC, LIBs retake Outremont from the NDP.
- In ON, CONs retake Peterborough--Kawartha and Cambridge from LIBs.

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