Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Projection Update: Ipsos 10/11-13 and Mainstreet's Sherbrooke Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Global News Ipsos' 10/11-13 national poll (national and Bloc QC results from Global News article only; current weight among national polls: 30%)
Mainstreet's Sherbrooke poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

There is no Nanos update today due to Thanksgiving yesterday, but we do have the weekly Ipsos poll, which confirms what other pollsters have shown: an NDP rise pulling from both the Tories and Liberals, but more from the latter. Interestingly, contrary to other pollsters, Ipsos does not show the Bloc gaining further ground from the consortium debates, but the Bloc does hold all of its gains from the TVA debate. As this poll was almost exactly in line with expectations, the projection barely moves at all.

An update to the Sherbrooke adjustments has also been made, as a result of which the Bloc's lead in the riding is reduced. Moreover, Liberal and Conservative numbers from ON and QC from yesterday's Mainstreet poll were added - this hurts the Liberals in QC.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 12)
CON - 135.5 (33.5%)
LIB - 129.3 (30.9%)
BQ - 35.6 (6.8%)
NDP - 33.9 (17.4%)
GRN - 2.5 (8.2%)
IND - 0.7
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Note: The NDP is ahead of the Liberals in MB/SK. This actually flipped in the last projection when I imputed MB/SK numbers from the Nanos 10/11-13 Prairies figures, but I had swapped the two numbers in the regional vote share table.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the PPC retakes Beauce from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ gains Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Châteauguay--Lacolle from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP regains Parkdale--High Park from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Oakville back from CONs.
- In BC, LIBs get Cloverdale--Langley City back from CONs.

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