Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, October 7, 2019

Projection Update: Abacus 10/3-5, Nanos 10/4-6

The following polls have been added to the model:
Abacus' 10/3-5 national poll (current weight among national polls: 21%)
Nanos' 10/4-6 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 29%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

First, if you missed my West Coast late-night (i.e. overnight for easterners) update with yesterday's Mainstreet data (Bloc very high) and two riding polls, it can be viewed here.

The Abacus poll has all parties within 1 point of the previous Abacus poll about 10 days earlier, except for the Greens, who drop 2 points.

Abacus has an extremely low number for the Greens in BC: just 6%! This is probably an outlier, but the Greens have been steadily losing ground in BC, now getting polls above 20% there only rarely, while such results were quite common during the summer. The Tories are also struggling in BC, now leading in 17 seats compared to 24 at times in the summer. The Liberals are now just 2 points short of the Tories in the BC polling average, while the NDP pokes its head above the 20% mark.

Another number of note in the Abacus poll is the Bloc's 19%. So Nanos and Abacus are showing no post-debate surge for the Bloc, while Mainstreet (whose sample size is roughly that of Nanos and Abacus combined) is showing one. More data needed! In the meantime, the Bloc projection shifts back to only marginally above where it was before the debate: around 20 seats. The Liberals get their best public QC poll result in 3 weeks.

The Liberals also did very well in Atlantic Canada. However, this poll isn't all bad news for the Tories: their deficit in ON went from 7% in the previous Abacus poll to 2%.

The Nanos tracker shows the Liberals falling into a rough national tie with the Tories, with the Greens increasing. This is probably mostly due to a strong Liberal and weak Green day (Oct. 3) dropping off: today's movements basically reversed those registered when that night was added.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 5)
LIB - 154.9 (34.0%)
CON - 138.1 (35.2%)
NDP - 21.1 (13.4%)
BQ - 20.3 (5.4%)
GRN - 2.5 (8.7%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NB, LIBs get Fredericton back from CONs.
- In QC, LIBs take Trois-Rivières from CONs.
- In QC, LIBs retake Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Longueuil--Saint-Hubert, Thérèse-de-Blainville, Montarville and Abitibi--Témiscamingue from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs retake Burlington, Kitchener South--Hespeler and Vaughan--Woodbridge from LIBs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke back from GRNs.

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