Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/16-18 and Riding Polls, QC Regional Adjustments

The following polls have been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/16-18 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 19%)
Mainstreet's 10/? Québec poll
Mainstreet's 10/15 Vancouver Granville poll
Mainstreet's 10/16 Laurier--Sainte-Marie poll
Moreover, within-QC adjustments were updated using Léger's 10/13-15 QC poll. (Nanos' 10/4-13 QC breakdown and Forum's 10/11 QC poll were also considered, but were much less useful.)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

First, the main lesson from Léger's megapoll of QC is that the Liberal vote is slightly less concentrated in Montreal than was the case earlier during the campaign. This could be because Liberal losses to the NDP came disproportionately in Montreal. The Liberals are surprisingly competitive in Eastern QC, which is good news for someone like Minister of National Revenue Diane Lebouthillier. These regional adjustments push the Liberals up 0.5-1 seat in the projection, at the expense of the BQ and Tories.

The Mainstreet tracker shows a small Liberal increase at the expense of the NDP, Greens and BQ. In the projection, however, it is the NDP that profits: Mainstreet's anti-NDP lean means that just by staying at a high level (even with a small drop), the NDP impresses the model. At the same time, the modest Liberal increase in the poll was mostly priced in. The Bloc, Greens and Tories are down very slightly (under 1 seat each).

All three riding polls resulted in adjustments, though the ones for Vancouver Granville and Laurier--Sainte-Marie are inconsequential, as the difference between the top two candidates is almost unaffected. However, for Québec, the adjustment flips the riding, pushing Minister Duclos ahead by a few points.

Net effect of all this? Liberals and NDP gain about one seat each, Tories and Bloc lose about one seat each. Underwhelming, I know...

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 17)
LIB - 137.1 (32.2%)
CON - 129.2 (33.0%)
NDP - 35.3 (18.0%)
BQ - 33.7 (6.9%)
GRN - 1.6 (6.6%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

I'm mostly caught up now, except for considering the following information for within-ON adjustments: Campaign Research's ON breakdown, Nanos' ON breakdown and the Léger GTA poll. (I will not be adding the Lethbridge College AB poll: due to its age, it would only have a ~1% weight in the AB average, not shifting any party's number by more than 0.1%.) This will be done tonight, at which point I will post a mapped projection update.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ takes Richmond--Arthabaska, Beauport--Limoilou and Trois-Rivières from CONs.
- In QC, LIBs get Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia, Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Québec and Saint-Maurice--Champlain back from the BQ.
- In QC, the BQ retakes Laurier--Sainte-Marie and La Prairie from LIBs.
- In QC, the NDP retakes Outremont from LIBs.
- In SK, the NDP gets Saskatoon West back from CONs.

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