Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Projection Update: Forum 10/7-8

The following poll has been added to the model:
Forum's 10/7-8 national poll (current weight among national polls: 30%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Correction Oct. 9: It's North Island--Powell River that changed hands instead of Courtenay--Alberni (which had already flipped to the Tories in an earlier update).

We already have our first post-English-debate poll, and the results are... interesting! The Liberals suffer drops everywhere except in AB and BC, resulting in a 10-point change in the LIB-CON national gap relative to last week's Forum poll. Interestingly, the NDP and Greens haven't really moved. The Bloc gained 4 points in QC to pass the Liberals, but those gains were not at the expense of the Tories, who are also up, or the NDP, who is up the most: the Liberals are the ones suffering in La Belle Province, falling below 30%.

Now, there are (at least) two reasons why this poll's results should be taken with greater-than-usual caution:
- The poll has a relatively small sample size.
- The poll was started after yesterday's debate, and published at 7pm EDT today. This means that, across Eastern Canada, the poll would have been conducted outside the usual evening window - for example, Nanos polls from 6:30 to 9:30pm during weekdays. This is potentially problematic in terms of the respondent pool. And it is in Eastern Canada that the Liberals fell - they actually had small gains in AB and BC.

Nevertheless, as requested by my Twitter followers, I am posting a projection update with this poll getting a fairly high weight (in relation to its sample size) due to its recency. Here, it is important to remember the model's philosophy: it seeks to give the best guess at the situation that prevailed as of the most recent poll, without any consideration to smoothing movements. In other words, the model doesn't wait for corroboration before moving; it is perfectly happy to move part of the way toward a seeming outlier, and then shift back if other polls disagree.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 7.5)
CON - 147.6 (35.9%)
LIB - 140.7 (32.5%)
BQ - 25.3 (5.7%)
NDP - 20.5 (13.4%)
GRN - 2.9 (9.2%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The Liberals lose 13-14 seats, with the Tories gaining 9, the Bloc 3-4, and marginal gains by the NDP and the Greens. Without the turnout adjustment, the Liberal would retain a marginal lead in the projection.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NB, CONs regain Fredericton from LIBs.
- In QC, CONs retake Trois-Rivières from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Montarville, Thérèse-de-Blainville, Abitibi--Témiscamingue, Longueuil--Saint-Hubert, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles and Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik--Eeyou from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Kanata--Carleton, St. Catharines, Markham--Stouffville, Mississauga--Lakeshore and Peterborough--Kawartha from LIBs.
- In BC, CONs regain Steveston--Richmond East from LIBs.
- In BC, CONs regain Cowichan--Malahat--Langford and Courtenay--Alberni North Island--Powell River from the NDP.

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