Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/29-10/1 and 9/25 Terrebonne Poll, Nanos QC Breakdowns

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/29-10/1 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 34%)
Mainstreet's 9/25 Terrebonne poll
Nanos' 9/11-20 and 9/21-30 QC breakdown
Full regional breakdown from the Léger 9/27-30 national poll added this morning
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Mainstreet poll shows almost no movement. The projection moved slightly against the Grits due to Mainstreet's still-weak Liberal number gaining more weight through more recency.

Adding the Nanos QC numbers and full Léger breakdown made almost no difference.

The Terrebonne poll resulted in a small riding adjustment.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 30)
CON - 148.6 (36.4%)
LIB - 146.7 (33.1%)
NDP - 19.6 (13.2%)
BQ - 19.4 (5.1%)
GRN - 2.7 (9.0%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The projection is delicately poised. The Tories are ahead in the total seat win probabilities, but the Liberals have the projected lead in more seats. It's a coin toss! Without the turnout adjustment, the Liberals would have a 7-seat lead (9 if counting seats ahead), which would roughly translate into a 55-60% chance of winning a plurality for an election taking place now.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ takes Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Longueuil--Saint-Hubert and Hochelaga from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Vaughan--Woodbridge from LIBs.

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