Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 10/9-11 and Mainstreet 10/9 Beauce Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/9-11 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 26%)
Mainstreet's 10/9 Beauce poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

First, please note that the last projection post was updated as, earlier this morning, DART released the full regional breakdown for its poll.

Today's Nanos finally shows some upward movement by the Bloc (which remains lower than in other polls), but the big news is that it shows the NDP increase amplifying. My guesstimate of daily Nanos numbers (not used in the projection) suggests that the NDP was at 21% last night, with the Liberals falling slightly below 30%, possibly a first since the start of the campaign. The Tories are also struggling, being not much above 30%.

However, as it turns out, the model had already priced in much of the NDP/BQ increases and Liberal/Tory decreases, so the projection moves very little, adding only 0.3% and 1 extra seat to the NDP.

The Beauce poll resulted in an update to adjustments that eliminates the slim Bernier lead in the projection, and makes this race a dead heat again. Note, however, that Bernier's subsequent solid French debate performance and decision to campaign in Beauce essentially for the remainder of the campaign may ultimately net him a few extra points.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 10)
CON - 138.6 (33.9%)
LIB - 134.4 (31.6%)
BQ - 31.7 (6.5%)
NDP - 29.2 (16.1%)
GRN - 2.9 (8.7%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine back from the BQ.
- In QC, CONs retake Beauce from the PPC.
- In ON, LIBs get Peterborough--Kawartha and Markham--Stouffville back from CONs.

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