Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Projection Update: Campaign Research 10/16-19

The following poll has been added to the model:
Campaign Research's 10/16-19 national poll (current weight among national polls: 48%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Campaign Research update adds about 1,500 respondents to the 2,000-respondent poll published yesterday. This update did not change the numbers much: the Tories and Liberals are up marginally, while the NDP and Greens are down marginally. Accordingly, the two main parties make small gains in the projection at the expense of the NDP and Bloc.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 17.5)
LIB - 139.1 (32.2%)
CON - 130.9 (33.0%)
NDP - 33.0 (18.0%)
BQ - 32.2 (6.9%)
GRN - 1.7 (6.6%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, CONs retake Trois-Rivières, Beauport--Limoilou and Richmond--Arthabaska from the BQ.
- In SK, CONs regain Saskatoon West from the NDP.

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