The following poll has been added to the model:
Campaign Research's 10/16-19 national poll (current weight among national polls: 48%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Today's Campaign Research update adds about 1,500 respondents to the 2,000-respondent poll published yesterday. This update did not change the numbers much: the Tories and Liberals are up marginally, while the NDP and Greens are down marginally. Accordingly, the two main parties make small gains in the projection at the expense of the NDP and Bloc.
Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 17.5)
LIB - 139.1 (32.2%)
CON - 130.9 (33.0%)
NDP - 33.0 (18.0%)
BQ - 32.2 (6.9%)
GRN - 1.7 (6.6%)