Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, October 18, 2019

Projection Update: DART 10/16, Nanos 10/15-17, Léger 10/13-15 QC Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
DART's 10/16 national poll (current weight among national polls: 25%)
Nanos' 10/15-17 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 22%)
Léger's 10/13-15 QC poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: I have not yet incorporated the Léger fine sub-QC breakdown into the projection. I'm also behind on adding the following information released earlier in the week: Nanos QC and ON breakdowns, Mainstreet Jonquière poll, Léger GTA poll and Forum QC breakdown. I hope to have an update this evening where I catch up on all this...

Today's DART poll shows little change from last week. It helps the Tories in the projection not because it shows a 4-point Tory national lead (the model accounts for DART's Tory lean), but because:
- the Tories are flat from last week, while other pollsters show them down, and
- the Tories swapped votes in AB for votes in ON.
This poll basically offsets the Forum poll conducted on the same day, released yesterday afternoon: taken together, those two polls have essentially no impact on the projection.

The Nanos tracker is mostly flat, except for a small Tory drop, consistent with other pollsters. Adding the Léger QC poll also had little impact, as its results are very similar to the QC polling average.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 16)
LIB - 131.3 (31.1%)
CON - 129.1 (32.5%)
NDP - 40.0 (19.0%)
BQ - 34.7 (6.8%)
GRN - 1.8 (7.4%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get La Prairie and Châteauguay--Lacolle back from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs retake Newmarket--Aurora, Whitby, King--Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Peterborough--Kawartha and Cambridge from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP retakes Davenport from LIBs.

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