Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 10/6-8, Mainstreet 10/2 Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/6-8 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 26%)
Mainstreet's 10/2 Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: The increased recency of the Nanos poll reduces the weight of yesterday's Forum poll from 30% to 26%.

Today's Nanos poll shows the Liberals up a point, mostly at the expense of the Greens. There is thus no sign of corroboration with yesterday's Forum poll, and as such, the Liberal deficit in the projection shrinks slightly. Mainstreet's tracker has a much bigger sample, so I would expect the projection to move back more strongly if Mainstreet also shows no Liberal drop.

The Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton (new name of Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot) poll has the Conservatives lower, and the Bloc and Liberals both higher (by similar amounts) than the model expected. This led to a model adjustment that makes this riding a long shot for the Tories.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 7.5)
CON - 146.5 (35.9%)
LIB - 143.7 (33.0%)
BQ - 24.4 (5.6%)
NDP - 19.6 (13.2%)
GRN - 2.9 (9.0%)
PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection (by this measure, the Liberals have regained a one-seat lead):
- In QC, LIBs retake Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik--Eeyou from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Mississauga--Lakeshore and Peterborough--Kawartha back from CONs.

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