Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Projection Update: EKOS 10/11-15

The following poll has been added to the model:
EKOS' 10/11-15 national poll (current weight among national polls: 14%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

A new EKOS poll is out, and like in other polls, there is a large NDP increase and also a Bloc increase from last week. However, EKOS shows the Tories and Liberals also marginally up. Of course, there must be a loser, and it's the Greens - this poll is a total disaster for them.

Regionally, the Liberals are showing strength in ON with a big lead, while the NDP is doing well in BC, placing a very strong second. What this means is that even though the Tories, Liberals and NDP all gain the vote share projection, the Tories are down again in terms of seats, falling below 130 for the first time.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 14)
LIB - 130.1 (31.1%)
CON - 128.9 (32.8%)
NDP - 39.3 (18.6%)
BQ - 36.9 (7.1%)
GRN - 1.6 (7.2%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, LIBs get Charlottetown and Egmont back from CONs.
- In QC, CONs retake Beauce from the PPC.
- In QC, CONs get Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix back from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Peterborough--Kawartha back from CONs.
- In ON, the NDP retakes Davenport from LIBs.
- In SK, CONs retake Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River from the NDP.
- In AB, CONs get Edmonton Griesbach back from the NDP.
- In BC, the NDP gets South Okanagan--West Kootenay back from CONs.

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