Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, October 14, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 10/11-13

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/11-13 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 52%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Today's Nanos poll is 2.5 days more recent by midpoint date than the next most recent freely available poll (excluding, of course, the Nanos releases from the past 2 days), Abacus' 10/8-11 survey. To put things in perspective, more time has elapsed between the 1st and 2nd most recent polls than between the 2nd and 11th most recent ones! This means that free public data really doesn't yet contain much information about where things stand this weekend. Because the projection is for the situation as of the most recent poll: (i) it puts (uncomfortably) high weight on the Nanos poll, and (ii) there is much greater uncertainty surrounding it than usual. The effective sample size for a projection is usually around 3000, and had increased to about 6000 a few days ago due to the deluge of polls. Now, it is down to around 1600.

So did Nanos pick up any meaningful movement from yesterday? Nope. The Liberals are up slightly, and the Bloc and NDP are down slightly, but there's basically no change. As a result, the projection is essentially flat (although the NDP does take 3rd place by an entirely insignificant margin). Sorry for the anti-climax!

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 12)
CON - 138.2 (33.9%)
LIB - 134.6 (31.6%)
NDP - 30.8 (16.4%)
BQ - 30.7 (6.3%)
GRN - 2.7 (8.6%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get Québec back from the BQ.
- In BC, LIBs get Cloverdale--Langley City back from CONs.

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