Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Projection Update: Léger 10/7-8

The following poll has been added to the model:
Léger's 10/7-8 national poll (national, QC, ON and BC results only; current weight among national polls: 39 27%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

- This poll is the first one that has more equally recent field dates than as yesterday's Forum poll, whose weight falls from 22% (30% initially) to 14 16%.
- This post will be updated if the full regional breakdown and exact sample sizes become available before the next projection update.

Update Oct. 9: Full regional breakdown and exact regional sample sizes now available. Also fixed date typo: Canadian Press article said Oct. 7-9, which is what I used. I accidentally typed Oct. 6-8 in this post. Turns out it's Oct. 7-8...

Léger corroborates the decline in both Liberal and Conservative support observed by Mainstreet, and like Forum, sees a rough Liberal-BQ tie in QC. This is also a pretty bad poll for the Tories in BC, and a strong one for the NDP and Greens there.

The Tories and Liberals are now, by far, at their lowest popular vote level in the projection, while the BQ and NDP are at their highest. Will these trends continue?

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 8 7.5)
CON - 140.2 141.2 (34.3 34.6%)
LIB - 139.1 140.3 (32.0 32.2%)
BQ - 27.2 27.3 (5.9 6.0%)
NDP - 27.2 25.1 (15.5 14.8%)
GRN - 3.2 3.1 (9.1%)
PPC - 0.5 0.6
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NS, the NDP gains Halifax and Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Lac-Saint-Jean and Trois-Rivières from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ takes Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik--Eeyou and Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne from LIBs.
- In QC, the NDP takes Outremont from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP gains Hamilton East--Stoney Creek from LIBs.
- In BC, Wilson-Raybould retakes Vancouver Granville from LIBs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Cowichan--Malahat--Langford, Courtenay--Alberni and Port Moody--Coquitlam back from CONs.

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