Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, October 20, 2019

Mapped Projection Update: Campaign Research 10/16-20, Abacus 10/17-19, Ipsos 10/17-19

The following polls have been added to the model:
Campaign Research's 10/16-20 national poll (current weight among national polls: 35%)
Abacus' 10/17-19 national poll (current weight among national polls: 13%)
Global News Ipsos' 10/17-19 national poll (national and BQ results from Global News article only; current weight among national polls: 17%)
I have also considered the following polls for a potential update to ON regional adjustments, but no change was made:
Nanos' 10/7-13 ON breakdown
Léger's 10/10-14 GTA poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Taken together, these polls show a fairly static race between the Tories and Liberals. Abacus and Ipsos show the NDP losing some ground. Abacus has the Bloc up significantly since its last poll, but since that poll is over a week old and other polls have shown a Bloc increase since then, this does not shift the projection much. Abacus also has the Liberals jumping out to a lead in BC, but Ipsos shows them falling further behind, so there is still no clarity there (though Ipsos BC numbers cannot be included in the projection).

Accordingly, the NDP is slightly down in the projection, which is mostly stable.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 18)
LIB - 137.8 (32.4%)
CON - 133.0 (33.7%)
BQ - 34.0 (7.1%)
NDP - 30.4 (16.9%)
GRN - 1.8 (6.7%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, CONs get Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix back from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Cambridge and Peterborough--Kawartha back from CONs.
- In ON, CONs get Oshawa back from the NDP.
- In MB, CONs regain Elmwood--Transcona from the NDP.
- In BC, GRNs retake Nanaimo--Ladysmith from the NDP.

Here is, belatedly, the map that I promised for last night. Of course, the map will be updated again when I post the final projection tonight!

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