Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/27-29 and EKOS 9/26-29

The following polls have been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/27-29 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 36%)
EKOS' 9/26-29 national poll (current weight among national polls: 20%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The main movement in the EKOS poll is a fall for the Tories and a rise for the Greens. The former helps the Liberals, especially because they expand their lead in ON to double digits. The Green increase, a few points across the board, does not lead to major seat implications in the projection. Before anyone gets too excited about the Greens' second place in QC, I'll point out that:
- the sample size there is 193;
- EKOS' two previous polls were outliers in having the Greens at 14% in QC; and
- Greta Thunberg was in Montreal for the march this weekend, when the poll was conducted.

The Bloc drops quite a bit in the EKOS poll. We've also seen a less dramatic pullback for them in the Nanos tracking, though they are still high in Mainstreet's numbers. For the NDP, it's a mixed bag: a very weak number in ON, but a very good one in BC.

There is no meaningful movement in the Mainstreet tracker (except maybe the NDP down slightly).

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 28)
LIB - 155.4 (33.6%)
CON - 141.8 (35.4%)
NDP - 19.0 (12.5%)
BQ - 17.5 (4.9%)
GRN - 3.3 (10.4%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get Saint-Jean back from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Kitchener South--Hespeler and Richmond Hill back from CONs.
- In ON, LIBs regain Windsor West from the NDP.
- In BC, the NDP gets Courtenay--Alberni back from CONs.

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