Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, October 14, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/11-13

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/11-13 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 50%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Mainstreet poll shows the Liberals partly closing the gap with the Tories, with the NDP flat and the Bloc slightly up, relative to the last public release on Friday. The effect on the projection, however, is negative for the Liberals. This is somewhat surprising, but can be explained by the following:
- The BQ level is high relative to other pollsters' surveys last week, so the lack of mean reversion is good news for the Bloc: perhaps Mainstreet got another BQ-friendly sample, but perhaps this new sample isn't particularly BQ-friendly, and the Bloc's rise has continued. And of course, a Bloc increase mainly hurts the Liberals seat-wise.
- The NDP level doesn't look particularly high, but given Mainstreet's tendency to produce low NDP numbers, it is interpreted as high by the model. Then, for much the same reason as for the Bloc, the NDP remaining flat is taken as good news for it. This hurts both the Liberals and the Tories, but the former more than the latter.

As a result, the NDP and Bloc are both up, with other parties - but mainly the Liberals - down.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 12)
CON - 137.6 (33.8%)
LIB - 129.5 (31.0%)
BQ - 34.2 (6.6%)
NDP - 33.2 (17.3%)
GRN - 2.4 (8.0%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

(I have also imputed some MB/SK and AB numbers for yesterday's Nanos release, instead of leaving those fields blank as Nanos only gives numbers for the "Prairies." This helps the Tories in the Prairies but hurts them a little elsewhere since the model adjusts regional polling averages so that they add up to the national one. The net effect is tiny, however: well under 1 seat.)

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, the NDP gains St. John's South--Mount Pearl from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ gains Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ gains Québec, Shefford, Saint-Maurice--Champlain and Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP regains Nickel Belt from LIBs.
- In MB, the NDP gets Elmwood--Transcona back from CONs.
- In SK, the NDP gets Saskatoon West back from CONs.
- In BC, CONs regain Cloverdale--Langley City from LIBs.
- In BC, the NDP gains Burnaby North--Seymour from LIBs.

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