Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/12-14 and Forum 10/11 QC Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/12-14 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 51%)
Forum's 10/11 QC poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: I have not yet reviewed QC sub-regional adjustments based on the Forum poll's breakdown. The results of the review will either be provided in an update to this post or rolled into a future update.

Today's Mainstreet tracker shows a Conservative drop, along with small increases for the NDP and Bloc again. The projection shifts accordingly.

The Forum QC poll shows the Liberals and Bloc both up from the QC subsample of the Forum poll conducted immediately after the English debate, at the expense of the other parties. Are some Quebecers realizing that it's a two-way race in most of the province, and picking a camp accordingly?

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 13)
CON - 132.2 (32.9%)
LIB - 129.4 (30.9%)
BQ - 37.0 (7.0%)
NDP - 35.7 (17.8%)
GRN - 2.4 (8.2%)
IND - 0.7
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ gains Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ gains La Prairie and Argenteuil--La Petite Nation from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP regains Toronto--Danforth from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Mississauga--Lakeshore, Kitchener South--Hespeler, Vaughan--Woodbridge and Burlington back from CONs.

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