Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Projection Update: Angus Reid 10/8-10 and Innovative 10/8-10

The following poll has been added to the model:
Angus Reid's 10/8-10 national poll (current weight among national polls: 35%)
Innovative's 10/8-10 national poll (current weight among national polls: 28%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Angus Reid poll corroborates others: the two big parties are down, with the Bloc and NDP gaining. The notable regional result is a good Tory number in BC, with a decent sample size of 472.

The IRG poll, on the other hand, shows very similar numbers to IRG polls from earlier in the campaign, with the NDP even dropping a point. The only notable change has been an increase in the Bloc number, and even then, 26% is fairly low compared to most other polls conducted this week.

The Angus Reid numbers are roughly in line with what the model was expecting, given the firm's Tory lean. If this poll had been added alone, despite being weighted at 48% due to its big sample size and recency, the projection would have moved by less than 5 seats against the Liberals, with modest gains for the Tories, Bloc and NDP.

The IRG numbers are also roughly in line with what the model was expecting, given the firm's Liberal lean (in its non-ad-testing polls). The numbers are mildly positive for the Liberals: NDP and BQ are a bit lower than expected, but also the Tories haven't dropped.

What is the cumulative effect of these two polls? Despite these two polls being weighted at 63%, the projection moves by 0.4 seats or less for all parties! This is remarkable stability, considering that for the main parties, just a 1% shift would move several seats.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 9)
LIB - 139.0 (32.3%)
CON - 138.5 (34.3%)
BQ - 30.2 (6.4%)
NDP - 26.2 (15.0%)
GRN - 2.9 (8.7%)
PPC - 0.6
IND - 0.6
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get La Prairie back from the BQ.
- In QC, LIBs get Outremont back from the NDP.
- In ON, CONs regain Kanata--Carleton from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP regains Hamilton East--Stoney Creek from LIBs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Victoria back from LIBs.

No comments: