Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, October 11, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 10/8-10 and a Mainstreet Riding Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/8-10 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 14%)
Mainstreet's 10/5 Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Nanos poll shows the Liberals down and the NDP up. As I mentioned yesterday, it is likely that Oct. 7 was a good Liberal night in Nanos polling, so the Liberal decrease may not have been any real movement. The NDP increase, on the other hand, appears meaningful, but was expected given what other polls have already shown. Overall, the projection moves very little.

The riding poll resulted in adjustments that mostly eliminated the Tory lead in Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup, making it in danger of falling to the Bloc, with the Liberals within striking distance.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 9)
LIB - 139.7 (32.4%)
CON - 138.6 (34.4%)
BQ - 29.9 (6.4%)
NDP - 25.8 (15.0%)
GRN - 2.9 (8.7%)
PPC - 0.6
IND - 0.6
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection: none.

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