Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 10/14-16

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 10/14-16 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 47%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Mainstreet update has the Liberals up a point from yesterday, with the Greens still dropping. The Bloc is also slightly lower - the Liberals must hope that this continues.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 15)
LIB - 131.3 (31.3%)
CON - 127.8 (32.7%)
NDP - 39.6 (18.8%)
BQ - 36.6 (7.1%)
GRN - 1.6 (6.9%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection: this will be updated later, along with the provincial breakdown in the left column.
- In ON, LIBs get Richmond Hill back from CONs.
- In SK, the NDP retakes Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River from CONs.

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