Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Projection Update: Angus Reid 9/27-30

The following poll has been added to the model:
Angus Reid's 9/27-30 national poll (current weight among national polls: 16%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Update Oct. 1: Correcting small spreadsheet mistakes.

Angus Reid's latest show the Tories with a healthy national lead. Due to the strong anti-Liberal lean of numbers out of Angus Reid, this poll shifts the projection average only marginally, with the Tory lead expanding by just 0.2%. (I expect this poll to have a big impact on other aggregators' projections, however. Let's see if, once again, their results re-converge toward mine.)

However, the movement is more significant in terms of seats: this poll's regional breakdown is wretched for the Liberals.
- They trail in ON by almost as much as nationally.
- The Bloc is very high in QC.
- The Liberals have a relatively good result... in AB - this is of course next-to-useless for them in the projection.
Using only this poll's numbers would put the Tories right around the majority threshold.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 29)
CON - 150.9 150.2 (36.6%)
LIB - 145.2 145.7 (33.0%)

NDP - 19.3 (12.9%)
BQ - 19.0 (5.0%)
GRN - 2.6 2.8 (9.2%)
IND - 0.5 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Without the turnout adjustment, the Liberals would retain a slim 3-seat lead.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the BQ retakes Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ retakes Saint-Jean, Longueuil--Saint-Hubert and Hochelaga from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Burlington and Kanata--Carleton from LIBs.
- In BC, LIBs regains Victoria from the NDP.

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