Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Projection Update: Campaign Research 9/30-10/2

The following poll has been added to the model:
Campaign Research's 9/30-10/2 national poll (current weight among national polls: 33%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Note: For now, I am only using the breakdown into the six usual polling regions. I hope to update this post tonight to incorporate the finer regional breakdowns. Update Oct. 4: Rolled into the next projection update.

Due to its very large sample size, this Campaign Research poll had the potential to significantly move the projection. However, its results are so neutral for the race between the two main parties that changes have been marginal. The turnout-adjusted Tory lead went all the way from 2.95% to... 3.10%.

Regionally, however, this poll is more interesting. This is a good poll for the Tories in ON, and a good one for the Liberals almost everywhere else (the Liberal number in QC isn't great, but the BQ being relatively low helps the Grits).

This poll is a reasonably solid one for the NDP, whose projected vote share in the model is at a new high in the projection. The NDP has been quite steadily gaining an average of 0.1% per day since the start of the campaign. If this continues through the rest of the campaign, Jagmeet Singh would essentially match Jack Layton's 2004 popular vote share.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 1)
CON - 147.2 (36.3%)
LIB - 146.9 (33.2%)
NDP - 20.4 (13.5%)
BQ - 19.8 (5.1%)
GRN - 2.7 (8.7%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, LIBs get Charlottetown and Egmont back from CONs.
- In ON, CONs regain Vaughan--Woodbridge, Burlington and Kanata--Carleton from LIBs.
- In BC, LIBs regain Victoria from the NDP.

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