Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, October 18, 2019

Projection Update: EKOS 10/15-17, Mainstreet 10/15-17

The following polls have been added to the model:
EKOS' 10/15-17 national poll (current weight among national polls: 18%)
Mainstreet's 10/15-17 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 27%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's EKOS poll is good news for the Tories. Relative to the last EKOS poll 3 days ago, they reduce the gap in Atlantic Canada and ON, and get a moderate lead in BC. The Liberals get good news in QC, while the NDP momentum appears to have stopped across the board. The Greens gain nationally, but, unfortunately for them, not in BC.

The Mainstreet tracker shows a Tory uptick and a Green downtick from yesterday, with other parties relatively stable.

Unsurprisingly, overall, the Tories gain in the projection, retaking a marginal lead. Has their two-week-long bleeding finally stopped? The Liberals and Bloc are down marginally.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 16)
CON - 131.9 (33.1%)
LIB - 130.2 (31.3%)
NDP - 39.8 (19.1%)
BQ - 33.4 (6.7%)
GRN - 1.5 (6.6%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs retake Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne from the BQ.
- In ON, CONs regain Vaughan--Woodbridge and Burlington from LIBs.
- In SK, CONs regain Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River from the NDP.
- In AB, CONs get Edmonton Griesbach back from the NDP.
- In BC, CONs retake Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge from the NDP.

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