Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 10/12-15 and Mainstreet 10/9 Trois-Rivières Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/12-15 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 20%)
Mainstreet's 10/9 Trois-Rivières poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Oct. 16: Corrected minor spreadsheet error.

This Nanos update has all parties' vote shares changing by 0.5% or less, so of course the projection changes little. This is the first Tory increase in the projection after six straight drops, and it is the fifth in a row with the Liberals stubbornly flat, between 129 and 130 seats.

The Mainstreet Trois-Rivières poll causes a riding adjustment that shifts a net 0.3 seats from the Bloc to the Tories.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 13.5)
CON - 132.4 132.9 (32.9 33.0%)
LIB - 129.7 129.4 (31.0%)
BQ - 36.4 36.5 (7.0%)
NDP - 36.3 36.1 (17.7 17.6%)
GRN - 2.1 (8.1 8.2%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, CONs retake Trois-Rivières and Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix from the BQ.
- In QC, LIBs get Outremont back from the NDP.
- In AB, CONs get Edmonton Griesbach back from the NDP.
- In BC, GRNs retake Nanaimo--Ladysmith from the NDP.

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