Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, October 18, 2019

Projection Update: Innovative 10/15-17, Campaign Research 10/16-18

The following polls have been added to the model:
Innovative's 10/15-17 national polls (current weight among national polls: 13% and 8%)
Campaign Research's 10/16-18 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 36%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note #1: This post will be updated later with the ridings where the lead changed. The regional breakdown on the left will also be updated at that time.

Note #2: I have not yet incorporated Campaign Research's sub-regional breakdowns into the projection, and I am aware of Insights West's BC poll. I'm also behind on adding the following information released earlier in the week: Léger fine sub-QC breakdown, Nanos QC and ON breakdowns, Mainstreet Jonquière poll, Léger GTA poll and Forum QC breakdown. I hope to have an update tonight where I catch up on all this...

Overall, the IRG polls were fairly neutral for the LIB/CON race: both parties lost equal ground relative to previous IRG polls. The Campaign Research poll helps the Liberals, who pull into a national tie and a 4-point lead in ON. These polls are not great news for the NDP: the smaller IRG poll has a very low NDP number, while Campaign Research has it down 1 point from last week.

As a result, the Liberals are up in the projection, while the NDP is down. After both flirting with 40 seats, both the NDP and Bloc are back down in the mid-30s. The Liberals move back to where they were on October 8, and are once again ahead of the NDP in MB/SK, AB and BC.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 17)
LIB - 135.9 (32.2%)
CON - 130.2 (33.2%)
NDP - 34.8 (17.7%)
BQ - 34.2 (6.9%)
GRN - 1.8 (6.9%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, the PPC retakes Beauce from CONs.
- In QC, the BQ retakes Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne from LIBs.
- In QC, LIBs retake Outremont from the NDP.
- In ON, LIBs get Davenport, Toronto--Danforth, Parkdale--High Park and Nickel Belt back from the NDP.
- In ON, LIBs get Burlington, Vaughan--Woodbridge and Cambridge back from CONs.
- In BC, CONs retake South Okanagan--West Kootenay from the NDP.

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