Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Projection Update: Léger 9/27-30, Nanos 9/29-10/1, Probe 9/17-26 MB Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Léger's 9/27-30 national poll (national, QC, ON and BC results only; current weight among national polls: 12%)
Nanos' 9/29-10/1 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 22%)
Probe's 9/17-26 MB poll
Mainstreet's 9/14 Jonquière poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

(Mainstreet also put out some 9/27-30 QC numbers, but I will not be using them because: (i) they appear to be from the rolling poll, so already factor into the projection through the national numbers; and (ii) the regional breakdowns don't seem to quite add up to the provincial figures given.)

The Léger poll is fairly neutral for all parties. The NDP probably has most to cheer, as it gains 3 points in its two most important provinces: BC and ON. The Tories can rejoice at pulling into a national tie with the Liberals, moving ahead of the Bloc in QC, and widening their lead in BC. The Liberals can breathe a sigh of relief after yesterday's bad polls, at it maintains healthy leads in ON and QC.

The Nanos poll shows a large Liberal increase, enough to take a marginal lead despite their deficit yesterday being over 2 points. This is obviously excellent news for the Liberals, and as a result, they regain the lead in the projection. The Greens continue to come off the Greta frenzy and are now 3 points down from four days ago. The NDP reaches a two-week high in Nanos polling.

The Probe poll, along with previous MB/SK breakdowns by EKOS and Campaign Research, resulted in small adjustments for MB/SK. The Jonquière riding poll, which I missed when it came out over a week ago, also resulted in an adjustment.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 30)
LIB - 148.9 (33.3%)
CON - 147.6 (36.3%)
NDP - 19.6 (13.1%)
BQ - 18.1 (5.0%)
GRN - 2.7 (9.0%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.4
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, CONs retake Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton from the BQ.
- In QC, LIBs retake Hochelaga and Longueuil--Saint-Hubert from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Kanata--Carleton, Burlington and Vaughan--Woodbridge back from CONs.

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