Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Projection Update: Campaign Research 10/8-10

The following poll has been added to the model:
Campaign Research's 10/8-10 national poll (current weight among national polls: 17%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Note: This post will be updated after I review sub-regional adjustments using this poll's fine breakdown.
Update Oct. 13: I have now updated the subregional adjustments for ON and MB/SK based on this poll. I have also done the same for QC based on the breakdown (French only) for this week's Léger poll. The details of the adjustments can be found through this link.

Campaign Research has provided us with another large-sample poll, and it corroborates what other pollsters have seen this week: decreases for both the Tories and Liberals, and a surge by the NDP and Bloc. The only national difference is that the NDP surge is a bit more pronounced than in other polls. Accordingly, adding this poll to the projection helps the NDP a bit, but doesn't cause a big change.

- In Atlantic Canada, the NDP's strong showing and the Greens' weak showing in this poll allows the former to surpass the latter in the polling average for the first time in months.
- In QC, the Tories drop to 14%, their lowest level in any publicly released regional breakdown since I started tracking polls in the early summer - and probably for a long time before that. The all-important Liberal and BQ numbers are in line with the polling average.
- In ON, the Liberals eke out a 1% lead, compared to a tie in the last Campaign Research poll. However, the NDP at 20% will cost the Liberals in some Liberal-NDP races that are relevant again.
- In MB/SK, this is yet another poll showing the NDP challenging the Liberals for 2nd place.
- In BC, it's a three-way race between the Tories, NDP and Liberals. This poll is only the third public one placing the NDP (marginally) ahead of the Liberals since the start of the campaign (the others being DART 9/11 and EKOS 9/27-30). The Greens being 7 points behind the NDP is very problematic for them. The NDP is now back in the lead in all 5 of its Vancouver Island ridings.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 10)
CON - 138.6 139.3 (33.8%)
LIB - 132.6 132.0 (31.5%)
BQ - 31.7 32.4 (6.5%)
NDP - 31.2 30.4 (16.5%)
GRN - 2.8 2.7 (8.5%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NB, the NDP gains Acadie--Bathurst from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ regains Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine from LIBs.
- In QC, the NDP retakes Outremont from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Peterborough--Kawartha, Mississauga--Lakeshore, Oakville, Mississauga--Streetsville and Markham--Stouffville and  from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP gains Oshawa from CONs.
- In ON. LIBs get Davenport, Toronto--Danforth and Parkdale--High Park back from the NDP.
- In ON, LIBs get St. Catharines back from CONs.
- In SK, the NDP gets Saskatoon West back from CONs.
- In BC, CONs retake Cloverdale--Langley City from LIBs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Courtenay--Alberni back from CONs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke back from GRNs.

After adding the QC breakdown from this week's Léger poll, the following ridings changed hands:
- The BQ gains Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia and Shefford from LIBs.
- CONs get Beauport--Limoilou back from the BQ.
- LIBs get La Prairie, Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne back from the BQ.

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