Projection Update: EKOS 10/7-10 and Mainstreet 10/8-10

The following polls have been added to the model:
EKOS' 10/7-10 national poll (current weight among national polls: 11%)
Mainstreet's 10/8-10 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 22%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The new EKOS poll shows the Liberals dropping and the NDP and Bloc rising from 11 days ago, unsurprisingly. The Bloc is not as high as in other polls, but the last EKOS poll had them extremely low there, so increase is large. The Tories haven't fallen, but that may be due to them already being low in the previous EKOS poll. As usual, EKOS has the Greens very high, especially in BC.

The biggest change is that EKOS sees ON tightening dramatically, though as the article notes, the Liberals did better there later in the polling period.

The Mainstreet poll shows the Liberals dropping further from yesterday, with the NDP rising. Have the Tories reached a floor, so that further NDP gains would come almost only from the Liberals? The Bloc also keeps increasing.

Adding the Mainstreet poll had a mild effect on the projection: the Liberals lose 4 seats, and other parties make marginal gains. Then adding the EKOS poll had almost no effect on the aggregate projection, though as you can see in the seats changing hands, the poor Liberal number in ON flips a number of seats.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 9)
CON - 139.7 (34.2%)
LIB - 135.3 (31.7%)
BQ - 30.9 (6.4%)
NDP - 27.8 (15.6%)
GRN - 3.1 (8.9%)

PPC - 0.6
IND - 0.6
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NS, the NDP gains Halifax and Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook from LIBs.
- In QC, the BQ regains La Prairie from LIBs.
- In ON, CONs regain Markham--Stouffville, St. Catharines and Peterborough--Kawartha from LIBs.
- In ON, the NDP gains Nickel Belt and Parkdale--High Park from LIBs.