Projection by Region

Here are some details of the final projection by region. I will pick one riding per region where either I am skeptical of the projection, or that will be interesting to watch tonight.

Atlantic Canada (32)
LIB - 18.8 (19 projected ahead), 38.5%
CON - 9.0 (9), 28.6%
NDP - 4.1 (4), 19.7%
GRN - 0.1 (0), 10.2%
Riding where I don't believe the projection: Acadie--Bathurst. The NDP's severe organizational problems in NB are not reflected in the model, as there was no breakout of NB in any poll since August.

Québec (78)
BQ - 35.3 (39), 31.3%
LIB - 31.6 (30), 32.1%
CON - 8.7 (7), 15.7%
NDP - 1.8 (1), 12.5%
GRN - 0, 4.1%
Riding where I don't believe the projection: Saint-Maurice--Champlain. Minister François-Philippe Champagne has a high profile in QC and has spent a lot of time with the people of his riding. I expect him to survive.

Ontario (121)
LIB - 64.9 (68), 38.5%
CON - 44.3 (43), 33.9%
NDP - 11.7 (10), 18.7%
GRN - 0, 5.8%
Riding to watch: I have trouble picking since there are so many...

Manitoba/Saskatchewan (28)
CON - 19.9 (20), 48.4%
LIB - 5.0 (6), 21.9%
NDP - 3.1 (2), 3.1%
GRN - 0, 3.7%
Riding to watch: Regina--Wascana. Long-time MP and Liberal Minister Ralph Goodale could be threatened. He survived in 2011 when things were much worse for the Liberals overall, but this year, there is anger in SK, and the Conservative leader is from a neighbouring riding. How much will the NDP vote rally around him?

Alberta (34)
CON - 32.2 (33), 62.4%
NDP - 1.4 (1), 15.5%
LIB - 0.4 (0), 16.4%
GRN - 0, 2.6%
Riding to watch: Edmonton Strathcona. This is the one projected NDP seat, though I think the model is probably too sanguine in terms of margin of victory. A Mainstreet poll this week was publicly described as showing a very tight race.

British Columbia (42)
CON - 18.5 (18), 32.8%
NDP - 11.8 (13), 25.0%
LIB - 9.9 (9), 27.1%
GRN - 1.1 (1), 11.3%
Riding to watch: Nanaimo--Ladysmith. This isn't just a two-way NDP/Green race, but actually a three-way NDP/Green/Tory race. If the NDP and Greens split the left-wing vote evenly, the Conservative candidate could squeak by. This is also where the limitations of my shortcut for estimating probabilities of victory are apparent: Green MP Paul Manly obviously has a better than 10% chance of holding this riding, but his probability of victory is being underestimated due to being in third place.