Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 10/7-9

The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/7-9 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 26%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Nanos poll partly corroborates what Léger and Mainstreet showed yesterday: a Tory drop and an NDP increase. However, in some encouraging news for the Liberals, Nanos shows a Liberal increase rather than a Liberal drop. In a sense, this Nanos poll balances out the quick Forum poll released on Monday, as Forum disagreed with Léger and Mainstreet on the Tories, while Nanos disagrees on the Liberals.

A note of caution, however: my guesstimate of the nightly results suggests that the dropped day (10/6) was moderately strong for the Tories, while the night that will be dropped tomorrow was a good one for the Liberals. So the Nanos tracker may tighten again tomorrow. However, guessing nightly results is a fraught exercise, so don't be shocked if tightening doesn't happen!

Obviously, as this poll balances out the Forum one, the projection moves back for the Liberals. This comes at the expense of all other parties - including the NDP because, although this poll corroborates its rise, it shows a smaller one than others.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 8)
LIB - 146.2 (33.0%)
CON - 137.8 (34.4%)
BQ - 26.1 (5.9%)
NDP - 23.9 (14.6%)
GRN - 3.0 (8.8%)
PPC - 0.6
IND - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In QC, LIBs get Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne back from the BQ.
- In ON, LIBs get Kanata--Carleton back from CONs.
- In ON, LIBs get Hamilton East--Stoney Creek back from the NDP.
- In BC, LIBs get Steveston--Richmond East back from CONs.
- In BC, LIBs retake Vancouver Granville from Wilson-Raybould.

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