Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 9/30-10/2

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/30-10/2 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 36%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Today's Mainstreet tracker shows the Tories increase their lead marginally, with the Bloc trending further up. Everything is coming up Milhouse for the Bloc today!

The projection is back to essentially a Liberal-Conservative tie.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 1)
LIB - 147.6 (33.2%)
CON - 146.2 (36.2%)
BQ - 21.0 (5.3%)
NDP - 19.6 (13.2%)
GRN - 2.6 (8.9%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, CONs regain Kitchener South--Hespeler from LIBs.
- In BC, the NDP gets Victoria back from LIBs.

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