Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Projection Update: Nanos 10/16-18, Insights West 10/13-16 BC Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/16-18 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 19%)
Insights West's 10/13-16 BC poll
Mainstreet's 10/9 Jonquière poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Nanos has some good news for the Liberals this morning, with the Grits gaining a point, the Tories losing a point, and the NDP also down slightly. The only issue for the Liberals is that the Bloc also jumped: Nanos now finally has it above 30%, even as other pollsters have it down from a few days ago.

This update also incorporates regional adjustments based on Insights West's BC poll. Because that poll does not give decided+leaning numbers, it does not figure in the projection average (manually distributing them is unreliable due to weighting issues). However, it is used to update sub-BC adjustments, which resulted in the Tories gaining about 0.5 seats at the expense of the NDP. The MB/SK breakdown from yesterday's Campaign Research poll was also used to update the MB/SK adjustments. This was also marginally positive for the Tories and negative for the NDP.

Finally, I've finally gotten around to adding Mainstreet's Jonquière poll, which resulted in a riding adjustment making a Bloc win only marginally less certain.

I'm now finally working on incorporating the following information from this week: Léger fine sub-QC breakdown, Campaign Research's ON breakdown, Nanos QC and ON breakdowns, Léger GTA poll and Forum QC breakdown. Today's public riding polls will also be added later.

Somewhat surprisingly, the projection did not move much. It appears that the good news for the Liberals was mostly pre-empted by yesterday's Campaign Research poll, which had the same field dates.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 17)
LIB - 136.2 (32.1%)
CON - 130.2 (33.0%)
BQ - 34.7 (6.9%)
NDP - 33.9 (17.5%)
GRN - 1.8 (7.1%)
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In ON, LIBs get Peterborough--Kawartha back from CONs.
- In SK, CONs regain Saskatoon West from the NDP.

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