Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Projection Update: Forum 9/30-10/1, Nanos 9/30-10/2, Mainstreet's 9/29 Beloeil--Chambly Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Forum's 9/30-10/1 national poll (current weight among national polls: 25%)
Nanos' 9/30-10/2 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 23%)
Mainstreet's 9/29 Beloeil--Chambly poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Oct. 3: Corrected spreadsheet mistake.

All three polls are noteworthy this morning! The most significant one for the projection is the Forum poll, which is very strong for the Liberals in both the Atlantic and ON. In QC, the Bloc registers a good number. This polls swings the projection significantly - adding it alone would give the Liberals a 10-seat lead.

The Forum news is tempered by the Nanos tracker, which moved towards the Tories, who retake a lead of over 2 points. Yesterday's marginal Liberal lead may have been a blip. Here, too, the Bloc registers a good number.

Finally, Mainstreet's re-poll of Beloeil--Chambly shows Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet gaining a sizable lead. The model already had him a few points ahead due to the Bloc's strong QC-wide numbers; this poll resulted in an adjustment that solidifies his lead.

So, all in all, it's three good polls for the Bloc, who breach the 20-seat mark in the projection. This comes on the heels of a strong debate performance by its leader, so perhaps there will be further good news in the coming days for the party.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 1)
LIB - 149.3 150.6 (33.4%)
CON - 144.8 144.0 (35.9 35.8%)
BQ - 20.6 20.2 (5.2%)
NDP - 19.6 19.4 (13.0%)
GRN - 2.7 (9.2 9.3%)
IND - 0.5 0.6
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, LIBs get Avalon back from CONs.
- In ON, LIBs get Vaughan--Woodbridge and Kitchener South--Hespeler back from CONs.
- In ON, the NDP gets Essex back from CONs.

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