The following poll has been added to the model:
Nanos' 10/13-16 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 29%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
This Nanos update has all parties' vote shares changing by 0.2% or less, except the Liberals, who drop by a still small 0.4%. Accordingly, the projection shows marginal change. The NDP drops slightly because the model was expecting a bigger NDP increase in the Nanos tracker given yesterday's Mainstreet poll (whose recency is between yesterday's and today's Nanos polls due to Nanos skipping Thanksgiving).
Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 14.5)
CON - 130.4 (33.0%)
LIB - 129.8 (31.0%)
NDP - 38.4 (18.4%)
BQ - 36.6 (7.0%)
GRN - 1.7 (7.4%)