Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Projection Update: MQO Summer Polls

The following polls have been added to the model:
MQO Summer 2019 polls (7/25-31 NL7/31-8/6 PEI8/6-14 NB8/20-27 NS)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This set of polls shows the Conservatives higher and the Greens lower than Narrative's August Atlantic poll. As a result, the Liberal lead in the Atlantic shrinks.

I have updated my Atlantic provincial adjustments, both in response to the new NS numbers and with a couple of tweaks to the methodology.

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 7)
LIB - 165.8 (35.4%)
CON - 144.0 (36.4%)
NDP - 13.9 (11.2%)
BQ - 9.8 (4.1%)
GRN - 3.5 (9.6%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.4

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seat changing hands since the last projection:
- In NL, CONs take St. John's East from the NDP. (The model has the three main parties within 3 points.)

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