Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 23, 2019

Projection Update: Abacus 9/18-22 and Nanos 9/20-22

The following polls have been added to the model:
Abacus' 9/18-22 national poll (current weight among national polls: 19%)
Nanos' 9/20-22 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 20%)
Mainstreet's 9/15 Ottawa Centre poll
Mainstreet's 9/? Shefford poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Abacus shows a stable race nationally from its previous poll on the eve of the campaign. The regional breakdown, however, is somewhat encouraging for the Liberals, with a small lead in ON (compared to a near-tie previously) and a tie in BC. Moreover, while the Liberals are down slightly from the previous Abacus poll, the Bloc is stable rather than up.

The Nanos poll shows the Tories dropping into a near-tie with the Liberals, with the NDP also down, and the Greens up. The Bloc is still high; it will be interesting to see if the Bloc drops tomorrow, three days after its big jump. Like yesterday, this had a neutral effect on the projection, as the negative shift for the Tories is offset by the replacement of older Nanos samples by those one day more recent.

The Ottawa Centre and Shefford polls resulted in adjustments for those ridings.

All this means a tiny seat shift toward the Liberals and vote shift away from them. The NDP falls marginally behind the Bloc in the national seat count, and behind the Greens in the BC vote share; this is mostly due to Bloc and Green strength rather than NDP weakness.

Update Sept. 23: I've just noticed that Mainstreet uses weights based on 2016 census counts rather than the most recent population estimates. This makes a small difference for the BQ numbers in QC inferred from the national numbers. But things are so close that this actually flips the seat lead!

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: September 21)
LIB - 150.7 151.0 (33.7%)
CON - 150.8 150.9 (36.8%)
BQ - 16.0 15.7 (4.9%)
NDP - 15.6 (11.7%)
GRN - 3.8 (9.7%)
IND - 0.5
PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- In PE, LIBs get Charlottetown back from CONs.
- In QC, CONs retake Jonquière and Trois-Rivières from LIBs.
- In ON, LIBs get Kanata--Carleton back from CONs.

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